The year 2026 is set to mark the beginning of a significant chapter: humanity’s initial ventures into colonizing Mars. Later this year, NASA’s ESCAPADE probes are scheduled to journey to the Red Planet’s surface. This mission leverages Mars’s proximity to Earth, serving as a precursor to crewed expeditions in the foreseeable future.
Eventually, settlers might establish a network of self-sufficient cities on Mars, transforming its barren landscape and enabling human civilization to thrive beyond Earth. This endeavor could offer the secondary benefit of extending the overall lifespan of human consciousness.
This vision echoes scenarios proposed by figures like Elon Musk, who in 2024 indicated plans to land on Mars within two years via X posts, although his company SpaceX has since redirected its focus toward lunar activities. The concept also resonates with one of the most celebrated science fiction novels of the past century: Kim Stanley Robinson’s “Red Mars,” published in 1992.
“Red Mars,” set in a future 2026, steers clear of alien conflicts or improbable technologies as central plot devices. Instead, its narrative centers on internal human disputes. The conflict arises between factions advocating for the belief that intelligent life is intrinsically valuable and should proliferate, and those who argue for preserving the solar system in its largely undisturbed state.
In its imaginative depiction of the future, Robinson’s novel included prescient elements. According to the book, Earth in 2026 is governed by powerful “transnationals”—all-encompassing corporations that wield influence over nearly every aspect of human existence. The United Nations plays a subordinate role, described by Robinson as unable to counter corporate desires and likely never attempting to, having become their instrument.
This outlook shares similarities with an earlier prediction made by the Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer David Dietz. When asked to describe 2026 in 1926, Dietz envisioned widespread and unchecked resource exploitation. He cautioned that “Competition will be keener, prices higher and luxuries fewer.”
Robinson utilized “Red Mars” to explore how future humans might exploit both the environment and each other. Climate change is presented as a catalyst prompting humanity to depart Earth. The protagonist, Ann Clayborne, views Mars as an opportunity for a fresh start, not merely another resource to be depleted. “You can’t just wipe out a three billion-year old planetary surface,” she states as the landing team discusses terraforming.
Another settler, Frank Chalmers, recounts the demise of Earth’s coral reefs and the desperate efforts to fertilize the Antarctic Ocean. His descriptions bear a resemblance to contemporary proposals for “climate megaprojects,” such as initiatives to stabilize glaciers and revitalize the Sinai Peninsula.
Themes of Division and Environmental Consciousness
“Red Mars” continues a narrative thread found in earlier speculative fiction, notably H.G. Wells’s “The Time Machine” (1895), by illustrating a population fractured by differing viewpoints. The colonists on Mars, referred to as “the hundred,” are in disagreement over the most effective methods for cultivating their new home. This theme is further explored in the novel’s subsequent volumes, “Green Mars” and “Blue Mars.”
Ann Clayborne voices apprehension about rendering the Martian atmosphere breathable, fearing the potential harm to any undiscovered indigenous life. “It’s unscientific, and worse, it’s immoral,” she asserts.
Her character’s pragmatic and ethical approach to a monumental challenge contributes significantly to “Red Mars'” enduring acclaim. The novel garnered both the Nebula and British Science Fiction Association awards. Various television adaptations have been considered or announced over time, with James Cameron, director of “Terminator” and “Titanic,” having previously been attached to one project before focusing on his “Avatar” universe.
A prequel novella to “Red Mars,” also titled “Green Mars,” was included on a CD aboard NASA’s Phoenix lander for its mission to Mars in 2006, a detail that reportedly delighted Kim Stanley Robinson.
Broader Societal and Environmental Concerns
Beyond his Mars trilogy, Robinson has addressed future societal risks in his writing. He has cautioned against the dangers of autocratic governance and the pursuit of technology in ways that exclude or marginalize segments of the population.
In 2012, he published “2312,” a novel depicting an overheated Earth, catastrophic sea-level rise, and a dismissal of our current era as “the Dithering” due to humanity’s slow response to the climate crisis. In the same year, speaking at the San Francisco Humanity+ Conference, he discussed the enthusiasm surrounding the use of advanced technologies like AI to resolve global issues.
“[It] maybe has to be All People Plus,” he stated, emphasizing that the disparity between the affluent and the disadvantaged represents another significant challenge—one considerably closer to home than Mars, located 225 million kilometers away.
The New Scientist Book Club is currently reading Kim Stanley Robinson’s “Red Mars.” Interested readers can sign up to participate.