The Hungarian government has asserted that the war-ravaged Ukraine will resort to extreme measures to prevent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party from securing victory in the upcoming Hungarian elections. Ministers have alleged that plans are underway for physical harm to the prime minister and his family, as well as for attacks or sabotage targeting critical energy infrastructure.
Conversely, the Ukrainian government has accused its Hungarian counterpart of orchestrating a smear campaign against it. This campaign, Ukraine contends, aims to instill fear in Hungarian voters, thereby encouraging them to re-elect Fidesz.
Navigating this complex situation is Russia, acting as a third party. According to a report by the Financial Times, a Kremlin-linked media consultancy named the Social Design Agency is preparing a large-scale disinformation campaign within Hungary. The objective of this campaign is to bolster Orbán’s prospects and discredit the opposition Tisza Party, led by Peter Magyar.
With only 30 days remaining until Hungary’s parliamentary election, some analysts suggest that the heightened anti-Ukraine rhetoric indicates Orbán’s growing concern over a potential defeat. Latest polls show his Fidesz party trailing Tisza by a margin of 39% to 50%. Other observers, however, believe Orbán understands his voter base well. They posit that if voters can be persuaded of an imminent national danger, he might achieve an unprecedented fifth consecutive electoral triumph on April 12.
Disruption of the Druzhba Pipeline Fuels the Dispute
At the heart of this escalating conflict lies the disruption of the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. This vital artery supplies both Hungarian refineries and those operated by Hungarian entities in Slovakia. Oil deliveries via the pipeline ceased on January 27 following a Russian drone strike that ignited a fire at the Brody oil hub in western Ukraine. Consequently, Hungary has received no oil shipments since that date.
Last week, Orbán presented satellite imagery that, in his view, demonstrated the pipeline’s structural integrity. He and his ministers contend that Ukraine is deliberately impeding repairs, aiming to create a fuel shortage in Hungary and thus undermine Orbán’s re-election campaign.
“The Orbán government is not presenting the complete picture,” stated András Rácz, a security analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, in comments to the BBC regarding the Hungarian government’s claims that there are no technical impediments to resuming Russian oil flow to Hungary. Rácz explained that in the January 27 Russian attack, an oil tank at Brody holding 75 million liters of crude oil sustained damage. To salvage the oil and avert an environmental catastrophe, it was redirected into the pipeline for storage.
The presence of this oil, coupled with other technical damage resulting from the initial and a subsequent Russian assault, is preventing the restoration of the oil supply. Ukraine estimates that repairs could take up to six weeks.
Anti-Ukraine Sentiment Manifests in Campaign Tactics
The fervor against Ukraine’s involvement in Hungarian politics manifests in various ways. Extensive billboards and posters adorn the country. Some depict Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemingly pleading for funds from European Union leaders. Others place Zelensky in juxtaposition with Peter Magyar. Tisza is accused of intending to draw Hungary into the Ukraine conflict by joining what is termed “the pro-war lobby” in Brussels—an accusation Magyar vehemently denies.
“We are the true party of peace,” Magyar declares at his daily rallies held across the nation. Orbán and his ministers are also touring the country, addressing gatherings they label as “anti-war” assemblies of Fidesz supporters.
A particularly striking Fidesz-produced video, generated with artificial intelligence, portrays a young girl questioning her tearful mother about when her father will return home. The scene then shifts to a firing squad, with the blindfolded father about to be executed. The implication of the video is that such a fate awaits Hungarians if they vote for Tisza. Facebook has reportedly rejected complaints concerning the advertisement’s violation of its rules on both political content and violence.
In a highly unusual peacetime measure, the army has been deployed to guard key energy installations. Within the Fidesz narrative, this serves “to reassure’ the public,” while the Tisza perspective suggests it is intended “to frighten” them. In the eastern city of Debrecen, Defence Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky cautioned that the city could be a target for “hybrid operations,” including acts of sabotage.
The prevailing pro-government media outlets function as an echo chamber for the government’s messaging. Tamas Polgar Toth, a journalist at the independent Debreciner news portal, told the BBC that “Many people contact us, asking why, if the danger of attack is real, the government does not provide information about air-raid shelters.” The Fidesz mayor of Debrecen, Laszlo Papp, later indicated to the portal that this matter was under consideration.
Escalation and Diplomatic Maneuvers
On February 21, Orbán exercised his veto power, blocking an EU loan until oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline was reinstated. Ukraine has since secured a €1.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to manage its finances until the dispute is resolved.
However, on March 4, Zelensky appeared to intensify the standoff. He stated, “We hope that no-one in the European Union will block the €90bn [of EU aid, currently vetoed by Hungary]. Otherwise, we will give that person’s address to our armed forces so they can call on him and speak to him in their own language.” Zelensky did not explicitly name Orbán.
The Hungarian prime minister expressed his displeasure. “They want to get rid of us, with threats if possible, because if nice words don’t work, then with threats and blackmail,” Orbán remarked on state radio on March 6.
The preceding day, two vehicles belonging to the Ukrainian state savings bank, Oschadbank, were seized while crossing into Hungary. Images of the TEK anti-terror troops involved in the operation were featured on the front page of the independent HVG weekly, depicted as Viktor Orbán’s “private army” moving gold bars around the symbol of the Tisza party.
Pro-government media outlets have alleged that one of the lawyers representing the Ukrainian bank in its efforts to recover its money and vehicles is a staunch Tisza supporter. A government decree issued on Monday mandated prosecutors to investigate “whether Hungarian criminal organisations, terrorist organisations or political organisations present in Hungary may have benefited from the transported assets.”
On Wednesday, several members of a Hungarian government-established “fact-finding mission” entered Ukraine by car. Their stated objective was to examine the Druzhba pipeline. Deputy Energy Minister Gábor Czepek posted on Facebook, stating, “Our job is to assess the status of the pipeline and create conditions for its restart.”
Ukraine, however, indicated that the group was being treated as tourists. A statement from Ukraine’s foreign ministry clarified, “This group of individuals holds no official status, nor do they have any scheduled official meetings; therefore, it is fundamentally incorrect to refer to them as a delegation.”