Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has faced a significant setback with the defeat of a key referendum on constitutional reform. This vote, which had evolved into a referendum on her government’s performance, saw the “No” campaign secure approximately 54% of the vote, against the “Yes” campaign’s 46%. Meloni had publicly supported the “Yes” initiative.
Before the final ballots were tallied, Meloni conveyed via social media that Italians had voted with “clarity” and that she intended to uphold their decision. However, she expressed regret over what she called a “lost chance to modernise” the nation.
This marks the first substantial defeat for Meloni and her right-wing coalition, a group that had presided over a period of unusual political stability in Italy. Opposition parties are celebrating the outcome, interpreting it as a signal of voters seeking a change in direction, especially with a general election on the horizon next year.
The referendum concluded on Monday afternoon after two days of voting. Initial exit polls suggested a narrow lead for the “No” vote, but this margin widened considerably as the vote count progressed.
Despite the intricate nature of the question presented on the ballot, voter turnout approached 60%. A higher turnout was anticipated to favor the government’s position, yet it proved insufficient to sway the overall result.
Provisions of the Rejected Reform
The reform that voters ultimately rejected aimed to enshrine a clear separation between judges and prosecutors within the constitution. It also proposed the establishment of distinct governing bodies for each profession and the creation of a new disciplinary court.
Government proponents argued that this change was essential for enhancing judicial independence. Conversely, opposition factions contended that it would disrupt a carefully established balance of powers—instituted after the fall of fascism—and would lead to increased political influence over the judiciary.
Many Italian citizens found the technical aspects of the reform challenging to grasp, possibly indicating a communication gap on the part of Meloni’s team. The vote rapidly transformed into a broader judgment on her nearly four-year tenure in office, a period approaching a record duration.
Challenging Political Context
The referendum’s timing proved difficult for the government. Meloni maintains close ties with Donald Trump, but the former US president is experiencing declining popularity in Italy. This extends to concerns surrounding the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Compounding these issues, Italy’s economy has been stagnant. Many citizens are apprehensive about the war’s potential impact on energy costs, adding to existing economic anxieties.
Implications for Meloni’s Leadership
Meloni consistently stated her intention to remain in office, regardless of the referendum’s outcome. This contrasts with Matteo Renzi in 2016, who resigned as prime minister after losing a constitutional referendum he had initiated.
Ahead of this vote, Meloni maintained that the referendum’s focus was “about justice,” not her personal standing. Following the confirmation of the results, Renzi advised that her government had lost its “magic touch” and needed to be more attentive to voter sentiment.
Speaking to Italian radio, Renzi commented, “Losing and walking out whistling just isn’t an option.”
A victory in the referendum would have likely bolstered Meloni’s confidence to pursue further political objectives, including a potential reform to introduce direct elections for the prime minister.
Instead, Elly Schlein, the leader of the opposition Democratic Party, suggested that Meloni’s defeat demonstrated the existence of “an alternative to this government” as the nation approaches next year’s general elections.
This loss has somewhat diminished the perceived strength of the coalition and Meloni herself. Once seen as the “strong woman” of Italian politics, she now appears more vulnerable.