China has put forth an application to launch nearly 200,000 satellites into Earth’s orbit. However, this substantial move might be a strategic maneuver to reserve orbital real estate rather than a direct endeavor to establish the world’s largest satellite constellation.
On December 29th, China’s newly established Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilisation and Technological Innovation submitted two satellite constellation proposals to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). The ITU, a United Nations agency, is responsible for the allocation of radio frequencies and spectrum in space.
These proposed constellations, identified as CTC-1 and CTC-2 and supported by the Chinese government, would each individually comprise 96,714 satellites. These would be distributed across an extensive 3660 orbits. For context, there are currently 14,300 active satellites in orbit today. Among these, SpaceX’s Starlink satellites number approximately 9400, operating within a limited number of orbits to provide internet connectivity. SpaceX itself has filed with the ITU to launch 42,000 satellites.
Victoria Samson, associated with the Secure World Foundation, a U.S. non-profit organization, suggests that China’s filing could be a form of orbital “land grab.” She posits, “It is possible they are merely attempting to secure space for future deployment.” Samson also acknowledges the alternative, “It is also conceivable that they are indeed planning for a constellation of that magnitude.”
By lodging this claim with the ITU, China mandates that any other satellite operators seeking to launch into the same orbital paths must demonstrate to the ITU that their operations will not cause interference. ITU regulations stipulate that at least one satellite from a filed constellation must be launched within seven years of China’s initial filing. An additional seven-year period is then permitted to complete the launch of all proposed satellites.
“If you file before another entity, and you adhere to your deadlines, those subsequent operators should not interfere with your activities,” explains Tim Farrar, a satellite communications consultant based in the United States. He further notes that China’s extensive filing across a wide array of orbits might indicate some uncertainty regarding the final configuration of this constellation. “This approach grants them considerable flexibility in their subsequent decisions,” Farrar adds. “The penalties for proceeding in this manner are minimal.”
Even if the application is genuine, its actual realization appears to be an exceedingly difficult undertaking. China launched a record 92 rockets in 2023, the highest number for the nation. However, to deploy 200,000 satellites within the stipulated seven years, China would need to launch over 500 satellites weekly. This necessitates hundreds, potentially thousands, of rocket launches annually.
This is not the first instance of an orbital “land grab” strategy. In 2021, Rwanda filed with the ITU for a constellation of 327,000 satellites across 27 orbits. Despite this filing, it has not demonstrably impeded the operations of Starlink or other satellite providers. “Peculiarly, people have not significantly altered their existing operational plans,” states Farrar. “These Rwandan satellites do not appear destined for construction in any substantial quantity.”
Nevertheless, China’s application does underscore the escalating competition within the mega-constellation sector. This is particularly relevant for space internet companies aiming to tap into a potential market of tens to hundreds of millions of users and exert control over global information flow. Currently, many entities are striving to catch up to SpaceX’s dominance. Amazon’s Project Kuiper (formerly Project Leo) in the U.S., has launched approximately 200 satellites out of a planned 3236. Meanwhile, two major state-backed Chinese constellations, Qianfan and Guowang, have deployed a few hundred satellites against thousands planned.
“Fifteen years ago, the concept of a constellation with 1,000 satellites seemed audacious,” reflects Samson. “Now we are observing Starlink operating with over 9,000.”